Field Events Analysis home - How predictable is the qualifying mark, event by event?

All events compared

What this page tests

Is the mark needed to reach a final harder to predict in field than in track?

28 senior events at European and Olympic/World Championships since 1999: sprints and hurdles up to 800m, and every jump and throw (1500m and up are run tactically, so excluded).

What we found

The mark needed to reach a final is much harder to predict in field than in track, and hardest of all in the throws - so why try to predict it? It swings 2.9% between championships in the throws, 1.6% in the jumps and 1.2% in track: field overall is 1.9 times as volatile as track.

Most volatile: women's Hammer (4.2%). Steadiest: men's 110mH (0.8%).

What it means for selection: a standard or "likely to make the final" judgement in a throwing event is close to a guess - no reason to leave out a qualified athlete. See predicting the qualifying mark (javelin).

Scope of data used in this analysis:

  • Competition types: European Championships only, Olympic and World Championships
  • Area competition dates: 26 Aug 1986 - European Championships, Stuttgart (GER) to 10 Aug 2026 - European Championships, Birmingham (GBR)
  • Olympic/World competition dates: 29 Aug 1987 - World Championships, Roma (ITA) to 13 Sep 2025 - World Championships, Tokyo (JPN)
  • Events: Running (100m, 200m, 400m, 800m, 400mH, 100mH, 110mH), Jumping (HJ, PV, LJ, TJ), Throwing (Shot, Discus, Hammer, Javelin)

For each event and edition since 1999: the 8th-best mark in the round before the final for track, the 12th-best for jumps and throws. Volatility is the coefficient of variation (standard deviation as a % of the mean), so times and distances compare. Combined events and relays are excluded.

Volatility by event

Track (sprints/hurdles to 800m)   Jumps   Throws

Summary statistics

Discipline Gender Competition Category Editions Mean SD Coefficient of variation Min Max
Hammer W European Championships Throw 11 66.42m 2.85m 4.29 % 59.15m 68.66m
Discus W European Championships Throw 13 57.40m 2.28m 3.97 % 53.60m 61.46m
Hammer W Olympic + World Championships Throw 20 68.91m 2.47m 3.58 % 62.78m 71.68m
Shot W European Championships Throw 11 17.06m 0.53m 3.12 % 15.79m 17.68m
PV W European Championships Jump 11 4.35m 0.13m 2.98 % 4.00m 4.50m
Shot M Olympic + World Championships Throw 27 19.98m 0.52m 2.61 % 18.90m 20.92m
PV W Olympic + World Championships Jump 20 4.48m 0.11m 2.44 % 4.25m 4.65m
Discus M European Championships Throw 14 61.39m 1.47m 2.40 % 57.78m 63.74m
Javelin M Olympic + World Championships Throw 27 80.41m 1.76m 2.19 % 77.08m 83.57m
Javelin W European Championships Throw 10 57.36m 1.20m 2.10 % 55.20m 59.29m
PV M European Championships Jump 14 5.47m 0.11m 1.99 % 5.30m 5.65m
Hammer M European Championships Throw 14 74.28m 1.43m 1.92 % 72.55m 77.78m
Shot W Olympic + World Championships Throw 27 18.16m 0.34m 1.87 % 17.73m 19.09m
Javelin W Olympic + World Championships Throw 21 60.18m 1.11m 1.84 % 58.42m 62.29m
Shot M European Championships Throw 14 19.49m 0.34m 1.73 % 18.64m 19.91m
Discus W Olympic + World Championships Throw 27 60.82m 1.05m 1.72 % 58.88m 62.65m
LJ W European Championships Jump 14 6.49m 0.11m 1.68 % 6.31m 6.63m
PV M Olympic + World Championships Jump 27 5.62m 0.09m 1.68 % 5.40m 5.75m
Javelin M European Championships Throw 14 78.82m 1.16m 1.48 % 76.69m 80.70m
Discus M Olympic + World Championships Throw 27 62.61m 0.88m 1.40 % 60.88m 64.99m
TJ W Olympic + World Championships Jump 25 14.09m 0.19m 1.38 % 13.43m 14.56m
400m W European Championships Track 14 51.84s 0.67s 1.29 % 50.33s 52.56s
TJ M European Championships Jump 14 16.45m 0.21m 1.29 % 16.06m 16.80m
TJ W European Championships Jump 12 13.89m 0.17m 1.23 % 13.59m 14.08m
Hammer M Olympic + World Championships Throw 27 75.11m 0.91m 1.21 % 73.24m 76.72m
100m W European Championships Track 14 11.32s 0.14s 1.20 % 11.12s 11.56s
HJ M European Championships Jump 14 2.22m 0.03m 1.19 % 2.15m 2.25m
400mH W European Championships Track 14 55.69s 0.65s 1.17 % 54.50s 56.91s
LJ M European Championships Jump 14 7.82m 0.09m 1.17 % 7.70m 7.98m
HJ W European Championships Jump 14 1.89m 0.02m 1.13 % 1.85m 1.92m
100mH W Olympic + World Championships Track 27 12.77s 0.14s 1.08 % 12.50s 13.02s
400mH M European Championships Track 14 49.42s 0.51s 1.03 % 48.44s 50.33s
100m W Olympic + World Championships Track 27 11.12s 0.11s 1.01 % 10.96s 11.34s
HJ W Olympic + World Championships Jump 27 1.92m 0.02m 1.00 % 1.88m 1.95m
LJ W Olympic + World Championships Jump 27 6.56m 0.06m 0.99 % 6.37m 6.68m
400mH W Olympic + World Championships Track 27 54.78s 0.54s 0.99 % 53.83s 56.32s
200m W Olympic + World Championships Track 27 22.64s 0.22s 0.98 % 22.08s 23.13s
200m W European Championships Track 14 23.13s 0.22s 0.96 % 22.77s 23.55s
200m M European Championships Track 14 20.67s 0.19s 0.94 % 20.35s 21.00s
800m M European Championships Track 13 1:47.17 0.98s 0.91 % 1:44.67 1:48.27
100m M Olympic + World Championships Track 27 10.09s 0.09s 0.90 % 9.93s 10.33s
100mH W European Championships Track 14 12.98s 0.11s 0.87 % 12.83s 13.25s
800m W Olympic + World Championships Track 27 1:59.68 1.00s 0.84 % 1:57.79 2:01.63
200m M Olympic + World Championships Track 26 20.33s 0.17s 0.82 % 19.98s 20.65s
800m W European Championships Track 14 2:00.97 0.96s 0.80 % 1:58.84 2:02.55
800m M Olympic + World Championships Track 27 1:45.48 0.82s 0.78 % 1:43.84 1:47.69
TJ M Olympic + World Championships Jump 27 16.76m 0.12m 0.74 % 16.57m 17.11m
400m M European Championships Track 14 45.66s 0.34s 0.74 % 45.10s 46.32s
110mH M Olympic + World Championships Track 27 13.38s 0.10s 0.74 % 13.22s 13.62s
100m M European Championships Track 14 10.28s 0.07s 0.72 % 10.16s 10.41s
400m M Olympic + World Championships Track 27 44.99s 0.33s 0.72 % 44.41s 45.78s
LJ M Olympic + World Championships Jump 27 7.95m 0.06m 0.70 % 7.83m 8.05m
400m W Olympic + World Championships Track 26 50.70s 0.34s 0.67 % 49.87s 51.18s
400mH M Olympic + World Championships Track 27 48.64s 0.32s 0.66 % 48.01s 49.53s
HJ M Olympic + World Championships Jump 27 2.27m 0.01m 0.65 % 2.24m 2.29m
110mH M European Championships Track 14 13.51s 0.09s 0.65 % 13.39s 13.66s

SD of a time-based event is shown as a duration for readability, but the coefficient of variation - the figure that is actually comparable across events - is computed from the underlying millisecond values, not from the rounded display figures.

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