This page shares its tournament classification with GB selection approach and performance, by tournament - the same first-pass, not-yet-finalised classifications apply here. See that page for the caveats on each one.
GB selection approach and performance, by tournament compares results at each tournament. This page asks a different question: for the GB athletes who competed but didn't reach a final that year, was sending them a good investment in the future? Specifically - of GB's non-finalists at each tournament, how many went on to reach an Olympic, World or European final within the following 3 years? Reaching a final, rather than winning a medal, is the bar used here - GB's later medal counts among non-finalists are too small to say much at all (see "What we found" below).
Every tournament is judged on the same fixed 3-year window after it, not on however many years have passed since. Judging tournaments by "did a non-finalist ever go on to reach a final, up to today" would make older tournaments look better for no reason other than having had more time - a 2017 non-finalist has had 9 years to reach a final, a 2024 one has had 2. A tournament only appears in the comparison below once a full 3-year window has actually elapsed for it, so every tournament included gets exactly the same amount of time to be judged on.
Split by run, jump and throw, then grouped by GB's own selection mechanism that year (see the companion page for what that means).
Non-finalists from the earlier, less discretionary era were somewhat more likely to go on to reach a final. Under Published number (extra numeric test), 33.6% of GB non-finalists (37 of 110) went on to reach a final within 3 years. Under Judgement (discretionary panel decision), that was 32.8% (22 of 67).
The samples here are still small - read the per-group numbers before trusting the overall one. Jump and throw non-finalist counts per tournament are typically single digits; a handful of athletes' later careers can swing a group's whole percentage. Reaching a final was chosen over winning a medal specifically because medal counts were even smaller - single digits across the whole comparison - so a "later medallist" version of this page would have been almost entirely noise. See the full breakdown below.
| Year | Championship | Mechanism | Years elapsed | Run (non-finalists / later finalists) | Jump (non-finalists / later finalists) | Throw (non-finalists / later finalists) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | World Championships (London) | Published number (extra numeric test) | 9 | 37 / 13 | 3 / 2 | 4 / 1 |
| 2018 | European Championships (Berlin) | Published number (extra numeric test) | 8 | 19 / 3 | 8 / 0 | 2 / 0 |
| 2019 | World Championships (Doha) | Published number (extra numeric test) | 6.9 | 33 / 14 | 4 / 4 | 0 / 0 |
| 2021 | Olympics (Tokyo) | Judgement (discretionary panel decision) | 5 | 27 / 12 | 3 / 2 | 4 / 3 |
| 2022 | European Championships (Munich) | Judgement (discretionary panel decision) | 4 | 21 / 4 | 5 / 0 | 7 / 1 |
| 2022 | World Championships (Eugene) | Not yet classified | 4.1 | Not yet eligible - needs 3 years' runway (or not classified) | ||
| 2023 | World Championships (Budapest) | Judgement (discretionary panel decision) | 3 | Not yet eligible - needs 3 years' runway (or not classified) | ||
| 2024 | European Championships (Rome) | Judgement (discretionary panel decision) | 2.2 | Not yet eligible - needs 3 years' runway (or not classified) | ||
| 2024 | Olympics (Paris) | Judgement (discretionary panel decision) | 2 | Not yet eligible - needs 3 years' runway (or not classified) | ||
| 2025 | World Championships (Tokyo) | Judgement (discretionary panel decision) | 0.9 | Not yet eligible - needs 3 years' runway (or not classified) | ||
| 2026 | European Championships (Birmingham) | Judgement (discretionary panel decision) | 0 | Not yet eligible - needs 3 years' runway (or not classified) | ||
"Non-finalist" = a GB athlete who competed at that tournament in that event but did not reach the Final. "Later finalist" = that same athlete reached an Olympic, World or European final (any event, any place) within 3 years after this tournament's start date.
| Mechanism | Eligible editions | Run | Jump | Throw | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Published number (extra numeric test) | 3 | 33.7%
30 of 89 |
40.0%
6 of 15 |
16.7%
1 of 6 |
33.6%
37 of 110 |
| Judgement (discretionary panel decision) | 2 | 33.3%
16 of 48 |
25.0%
2 of 8 |
36.4%
4 of 11 |
32.8%
22 of 67 |
A "later final" is counted regardless of which event it's in - a non-finalist in one
discipline who later reaches a final in a different one still counts, since the question
here is whether sending the athlete at all was a good investment, not whether that specific
event entry was. Winning a medal, rather than just reaching a final, was tried first but
produced counts too small to be usable - single digits across the whole comparison -
so this page uses "reached a final" as the success criterion instead. Combined events
(decathlon, heptathlon) are excluded from the Run/Jump/Throw
split entirely, since they don't belong cleanly in one of the three; their individual-leg
marks are also excluded from every other event's entrant count, since World Athletics'
data records e.g. a decathlete's 100m leg as a row under the standalone "100m" event too
(marked race = 'Combined - Group', not 'Final') - without
excluding those rows, decathletes would be double-counted as entrants in events they never
separately entered.
Main query ($windowYears = 3):
WITH gb_entrants AS (
SELECT DISTINCT r.competitionId, r.aaId, r.eventId, c1.startDate AS tDate,
CASE WHEN e.event_short IN ('HJ','PV','LJ','TJ') THEN 'Jump'
WHEN e.event_short IN ('Shot','Discus','Hammer','Javelin') THEN 'Throw'
ELSE 'Run' END AS discGroup
FROM athletics_wa_competition_results r
JOIN athletics_wa_competitions c1 ON c1.competitionId = r.competitionId
JOIN athletics_wa_events e ON e.eventId = r.eventId
WHERE r.competitionId IN (7093740,7105084,7125365,7132391,7147634)
AND r.aaId > 0
AND r.race <> 'Combined - Group'
AND e.event_short <> 'Combined'
AND SUBSTRING_INDEX(r.athleteUrlSlug, '/', 1) = 'great-britain-ni'
),
gb_finalists AS (
SELECT DISTINCT r.competitionId, r.aaId, r.eventId
FROM athletics_wa_competition_results r
WHERE r.competitionId IN (7093740,7105084,7125365,7132391,7147634)
AND r.race = 'Final'
AND r.aaId > 0
AND SUBSTRING_INDEX(r.athleteUrlSlug, '/', 1) = 'great-britain-ni'
),
non_finalists AS (
SELECT ge.*
FROM gb_entrants ge
LEFT JOIN gb_finalists gf
ON gf.competitionId = ge.competitionId AND gf.aaId = ge.aaId AND gf.eventId = ge.eventId
WHERE gf.aaId IS NULL
)
SELECT nf.competitionId, nf.discGroup,
COUNT(DISTINCT nf.aaId) AS nonFinalists,
COUNT(DISTINCT CASE WHEN EXISTS (
SELECT 1 FROM athletics_wa_competition_results r2
JOIN athletics_wa_competitions c2 ON c2.competitionId = r2.competitionId
WHERE r2.aaId = nf.aaId
AND r2.race = 'Final'
AND c2.type IN ('E', 'O+W')
AND c2.startDate > nf.tDate
AND c2.startDate <= DATE_ADD(nf.tDate, INTERVAL 3 YEAR)
) THEN nf.aaId END) AS laterFinalists
FROM non_finalists nf
GROUP BY nf.competitionId, nf.discGroup