GB only - draft, awaiting review

This page is a working draft

This page shares its tournament classification with GB selection approach and performance, by tournament - the same first-pass, not-yet-finalised classifications apply here. See that page for the caveats on each one.

What this page tests

GB selection approach and performance, by tournament compares results at each tournament. This page asks a different question: for the GB athletes who competed but didn't reach a final that year, was sending them a good investment in the future? Specifically - of GB's non-finalists at each tournament, how many went on to reach an Olympic, World or European final within the following 3 years? Reaching a final, rather than winning a medal, is the bar used here - GB's later medal counts among non-finalists are too small to say much at all (see "What we found" below).

Every tournament is judged on the same fixed 3-year window after it, not on however many years have passed since. Judging tournaments by "did a non-finalist ever go on to reach a final, up to today" would make older tournaments look better for no reason other than having had more time - a 2017 non-finalist has had 9 years to reach a final, a 2024 one has had 2. A tournament only appears in the comparison below once a full 3-year window has actually elapsed for it, so every tournament included gets exactly the same amount of time to be judged on.

Split by run, jump and throw, then grouped by GB's own selection mechanism that year (see the companion page for what that means).

What we found

Non-finalists from the earlier, less discretionary era were somewhat more likely to go on to reach a final. Under Published number (extra numeric test), 33.6% of GB non-finalists (37 of 110) went on to reach a final within 3 years. Under Judgement (discretionary panel decision), that was 32.8% (22 of 67).

The samples here are still small - read the per-group numbers before trusting the overall one. Jump and throw non-finalist counts per tournament are typically single digits; a handful of athletes' later careers can swing a group's whole percentage. Reaching a final was chosen over winning a medal specifically because medal counts were even smaller - single digits across the whole comparison - so a "later medallist" version of this page would have been almost entirely noise. See the full breakdown below.

By tournament

Year Championship Mechanism Years elapsed Run (non-finalists / later finalists) Jump (non-finalists / later finalists) Throw (non-finalists / later finalists)
2017 World Championships (London) Published number (extra numeric test) 9 37 / 13 3 / 2 4 / 1
2018 European Championships (Berlin) Published number (extra numeric test) 8 19 / 3 8 / 0 2 / 0
2019 World Championships (Doha) Published number (extra numeric test) 6.9 33 / 14 4 / 4 0 / 0
2021 Olympics (Tokyo) Judgement (discretionary panel decision) 5 27 / 12 3 / 2 4 / 3
2022 European Championships (Munich) Judgement (discretionary panel decision) 4 21 / 4 5 / 0 7 / 1
2022 World Championships (Eugene) Not yet classified 4.1 Not yet eligible - needs 3 years' runway (or not classified)
2023 World Championships (Budapest) Judgement (discretionary panel decision) 3 Not yet eligible - needs 3 years' runway (or not classified)
2024 European Championships (Rome) Judgement (discretionary panel decision) 2.2 Not yet eligible - needs 3 years' runway (or not classified)
2024 Olympics (Paris) Judgement (discretionary panel decision) 2 Not yet eligible - needs 3 years' runway (or not classified)
2025 World Championships (Tokyo) Judgement (discretionary panel decision) 0.9 Not yet eligible - needs 3 years' runway (or not classified)
2026 European Championships (Birmingham) Judgement (discretionary panel decision) 0 Not yet eligible - needs 3 years' runway (or not classified)

"Non-finalist" = a GB athlete who competed at that tournament in that event but did not reach the Final. "Later finalist" = that same athlete reached an Olympic, World or European final (any event, any place) within 3 years after this tournament's start date.

Grouped by mechanism

Mechanism Eligible editions Run Jump Throw Overall
Published number (extra numeric test) 3 33.7%
30 of 89
40.0%
6 of 15
16.7%
1 of 6
33.6%
37 of 110
Judgement (discretionary panel decision) 2 33.3%
16 of 48
25.0%
2 of 8
36.4%
4 of 11
32.8%
22 of 67

A "later final" is counted regardless of which event it's in - a non-finalist in one discipline who later reaches a final in a different one still counts, since the question here is whether sending the athlete at all was a good investment, not whether that specific event entry was. Winning a medal, rather than just reaching a final, was tried first but produced counts too small to be usable - single digits across the whole comparison - so this page uses "reached a final" as the success criterion instead. Combined events (decathlon, heptathlon) are excluded from the Run/Jump/Throw split entirely, since they don't belong cleanly in one of the three; their individual-leg marks are also excluded from every other event's entrant count, since World Athletics' data records e.g. a decathlete's 100m leg as a row under the standalone "100m" event too (marked race = 'Combined - Group', not 'Final') - without excluding those rows, decathletes would be double-counted as entrants in events they never separately entered.

Main query ($windowYears = 3):

        WITH gb_entrants AS (
            SELECT DISTINCT r.competitionId, r.aaId, r.eventId, c1.startDate AS tDate,
                   CASE WHEN e.event_short IN ('HJ','PV','LJ','TJ') THEN 'Jump'
                        WHEN e.event_short IN ('Shot','Discus','Hammer','Javelin') THEN 'Throw'
                        ELSE 'Run' END AS discGroup
            FROM athletics_wa_competition_results r
            JOIN athletics_wa_competitions c1 ON c1.competitionId = r.competitionId
            JOIN athletics_wa_events e ON e.eventId = r.eventId
            WHERE r.competitionId IN (7093740,7105084,7125365,7132391,7147634)
              AND r.aaId > 0
              AND r.race <> 'Combined - Group'
              AND e.event_short <> 'Combined'
              AND SUBSTRING_INDEX(r.athleteUrlSlug, '/', 1) = 'great-britain-ni'
        ),
        gb_finalists AS (
            SELECT DISTINCT r.competitionId, r.aaId, r.eventId
            FROM athletics_wa_competition_results r
            WHERE r.competitionId IN (7093740,7105084,7125365,7132391,7147634)
              AND r.race = 'Final'
              AND r.aaId > 0
              AND SUBSTRING_INDEX(r.athleteUrlSlug, '/', 1) = 'great-britain-ni'
        ),
        non_finalists AS (
            SELECT ge.*
            FROM gb_entrants ge
            LEFT JOIN gb_finalists gf
                ON gf.competitionId = ge.competitionId AND gf.aaId = ge.aaId AND gf.eventId = ge.eventId
            WHERE gf.aaId IS NULL
        )
        SELECT nf.competitionId, nf.discGroup,
               COUNT(DISTINCT nf.aaId) AS nonFinalists,
               COUNT(DISTINCT CASE WHEN EXISTS (
                   SELECT 1 FROM athletics_wa_competition_results r2
                   JOIN athletics_wa_competitions c2 ON c2.competitionId = r2.competitionId
                   WHERE r2.aaId = nf.aaId
                     AND r2.race = 'Final'
                     AND c2.type IN ('E', 'O+W')
                     AND c2.startDate > nf.tDate
                     AND c2.startDate <= DATE_ADD(nf.tDate, INTERVAL 3 YEAR)
               ) THEN nf.aaId END) AS laterFinalists
        FROM non_finalists nf
        GROUP BY nf.competitionId, nf.discGroup